KBB’s 2026 Resale Awards: What the Forecast Measures

Resale forecasts

Updated October 16, 2026

Kelley Blue Book’s 2026 Best Resale Value Awards forecast how new vehicles may retain value over five years. They can help frame a shopping comparison, but they are not appraisals of the used cars in front of you. An award, a current guide estimate and a buyer’s written offer answer different questions.

What the 2026 awards actually measure

In its March 19, 2026 announcement, KBB named Toyota Best Resale Value Brand and Lexus Best Resale Value Luxury Brand. Their respective projected brand averages were 53% and 47% of original MSRP. Those are brand-level figures, not promised percentages for every Toyota or Lexus.

The awards use the January/February 2026 Residual Value Guide for 2026-model-year vehicles. KBB describes analyst-reviewed statistical models built on millions of transactions. Its residual forecasts refer to future auction values for average-condition vehicles with 75,000 miles at the end of five years, expressed relative to original MSRP.

Why that is different from today’s trade-in value

A five-year projection starts from assumptions about a future vehicle. A current valuation starts with the vehicle that exists today. Its actual mileage, equipment and condition may differ from the award’s reference case, and the transaction may be a retail purchase, private sale or dealer trade rather than an auction.

KBB’s valuation FAQ asks for year, make, model, trim, mileage, equipment, condition, ZIP code and intended sale channel. It calls the Trade-In Range an estimate and says values are not guaranteed. Entering a winning model’s name does not remove the need for those details.

If two results disagree, first check that they describe the same vehicle and sale channel on comparable dates. A retail asking price is not the same number as a trade allowance. Nor should a projected percentage of original MSRP be applied to the used asking price as though that produces a new appraisal.

Use the award to organize a comparison

When comparing vehicles you might keep for several years, note the award year, model and category beside the purchase price. Then list the separate questions that still need answers: Does this particular vehicle have the equipment you need? What work is documented? What condition has actually been inspected? What written coverage, if any, is offered?

The FTC’s used-car buying guidance recommends an independent mechanical inspection even when a dealer has inspected or certified the car or offers a warranty. A resale award supplies no substitute for that examination. It also does not turn a brand forecast into evidence about one vehicle’s mechanical condition.

Keep the purchase decision broader than an exit-value forecast. Compare the actual price and any financing terms, then obtain costs relevant to your use, such as insurance and required maintenance. Avoid labeling the award winner the cheaper vehicle to own before those other amounts are known.

When it is time to sell, get current terms

Use current, accurately described valuation inputs and request written offers with their conditions and expiration dates. If there is a loan, obtain the applicable payoff separately. Our guide to estimates, offers and loan payoff explains how those numbers fit together without treating a preliminary estimate as money received.

The award remains useful as a dated forecast with stated assumptions. The eventual transaction needs its own evidence: the vehicle’s condition, a current buyer’s terms and the amount, if any, still owed. Keep those beside the award rather than asking one headline to stand in for all three.